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This is a Message Board Post that is gatewayed to this mailing list.
Classification: Query
Message Board URL:
http://boards.ancestry.com/mbexec/msg/rw/BNJ.2ACEB/280.1
Message Board Post:
Ann Turner commented:
"Since there are hundreds of surname projects out there, we are bound to encounter the unusual cases out on the tails of the normal curve once in a while. It would be more analogous to measuring a large population for height. There will be a substantial number of people in absolute terms who are in the top percentile for height, but that wouldn't make us question our measurement techniques. This is rather arbitrary, but I feel more comfortable with a threshold of .001 for raising my eyebrows :)
Yes, the lab guys (or anyone in the chain of custody) can make mistakes. However, the measurement techniques for deciding on the length of an STR are quite robust, and any errors are more likely to be clerical mistakes -- mislabeling a sample, transferring numbers to the wrong row in a spreadsheet, and the like. However, this type of mistake more often leads to an unexpected number of differences rather than an unexpected number of similarities."
To which I will add that her nifty calculator says that with 69-70 "transmission events" (aka summed generations), and still no mutations for 43 markers, the probability will be 0.001. Since lines back to John 1653 average about 8 generations, 4 more participants ought to do it. Or, more likely, a mutation will turn up.
Another bit of news is that FTDNA now offers 59 marker tests. Presumably DNAHeritage will soon follow. For troublesome lines like Joseph 1763, the Ohio pioneer, or John 1778, it might be worth the investment.
Jonathan
This is a Message Board Post that is gatewayed to this mailing list.
Classification: Query
Message Board URL:
http://boards.ancestry.com/mbexec/msg/rw/BNJ.2ACEB/280
Message Board Post:
I happened across a y DNA mutation calculator the other day*, which is just what is needed to investigate Stockdale's suspiciously slow DNA.
To recap, five certain Stockdale descendants are IDENTICAL at all 43 markers, and none of them are closer than 1/2 6th cousins. DNA mutation probabilities also depend on the number of "transmission events" (paternities), which in our case sum to 39--a tree from John 1653 to these five individuals, which has 39 "limbs."
The probability of a mutation in one marker per transmission event is 0.0023, so at 43 markers and 39 events, the expected number of mutations is 4, not 0.
In fact, the probability of zero mutations is apparently 0.02115, which, by convention, is statistically "significant."
I wonder if the lab guys made a mistake?
jonathan
* http://members.aol.com/dnafiler/MutationCalculator.exe. Ann Turner's Mutation Calculator. The program requires the Microsoft Visual Basic runtime library MSVBVM60.DLL See http://support.microsoft.com/default.aspx?scid=kb;en-us;Q192461 if you need to download this file.
This is a Message Board Post that is gatewayed to this mailing list.
Classification: Query
Message Board URL:
http://boards.ancestry.com/mbexec/msg/rw/BNJ.2ACEB/279.1
Message Board Post:
Judge,
George had two other wives besides Mary, by whom he had 12 other children. I've corresponded with descendants of at least two of the three wives (including Mary/Polly), but they are not subscribers to this list and probably will not see your post.
Jonathan
This is a Message Board Post that is gatewayed to this mailing list.
Surnames: CODDINGTON, CHRISTY
Classification: Query
Message Board URL:
http://boards.ancestry.com/mbexec/msg/rw/BNJ.2ACEB/279
Message Board Post:
Looking for descendants of George and Mary Coddington:
Vina A. Coddington b. 1880
Malvina Coddington b. 1881
Frances E. Coddington b. 1883
Please contact me!