Dear Group:
I will post the Chart here which shows the % of accuaracy for the Most
Recent Common Ancestor (MRCA) from your test results.
Understanding MRCA
1. If I submit a sample to you for testing and you find that I match exactly
with another person, how many generations ago did we have a common ancestor?
Here are the times back to the MRCA when ALL the markers match. For example,
with 37/37 (all 37 markers match), there is a 50% probability that the MRCA
was no longer than 5 generations, and a 90% probability that the MRCA was
within the last 16 generations. Compare these with 25 and 12 -- with 25
markers, there is a 50% probability that the MRCA was within the last 7
generations, while with 12 markers, there is a 50% probability that the MRCA
was within the last 14.5 generations.
Table 1. Probability for Most Recent Common Ancestor (MRCA)
Number of matching markers
50% probability
that the MRCA was no longer than this number of generations
90% probability
that the MRCA was no longer than this number of generations
95% probability
that the MRCA was no longer than this number of generations
10 of 10
16.5
56
72
12 of 12
14.5
48
62
25 of 25
7
23
30.4
37 of 37
5
16
21