Lura,
I think the missing Carroll at YSearch just did not choose to have his
results entered. It is not mandatory. That is the easiest explanation.
Have many descendants of those 10 Carroll families on the 1790 census joined
the Carroll Surname Project? That would be a good way to go. Sometimes the
paper trail just does not exist. Y-DNA has the potential of overcoming
that, but it will depend upon your genealogical goals.
Consider this scenario. Through Y-DNA testing you may find an exact match
on many markers with the same surname Carroll. With a 37/37 match and a
surname match you have a very good chance of being related. Without a
connecting paper trail you can at least be quite sure you have an
ancestor-in-common within a certain time frame. If this Carroll match's
earliest known Carroll ancestor predates your Alexander Carroll, then you
would probably have found an ancestor of Alexander Carroll. In effect you
could skip over Alexander Carroll's father's generation, but still pick it
up and continue with your earlier Carroll genealogy in the traditional way,
say in Europe or where ever that match's earliest ancestor was from.
Although you could not say exactly how Alexander fits in, you could still
say with some certainty that you had discovered his Carroll family of
origin, and may learn much about them.
This would just be guesswork in traditional genealogy, but with the added
tool of genetic genealogy much of the guesswork goes away. The statistical
probability can be calculated, and if you can live with, say, a 95%
probability that you have the correct family, then you are ahead of the
game. Genetic genealogy without a paper trail becomes Statistical
genealogy. But how confident can we be that a paper trail is 100% accurate?
Eric Olson
Carroll-DNA list administrator
ericbear(a)pcweb.net
----- Original Message -----
From: "Lura" <luraj(a)triad.rr.com>
To: <CARROLL-DNA-L(a)rootsweb.com>
Sent: Saturday, July 02, 2005 10:55 AM
Subject: Re: [CARROLL-DNA] Comparing Y-DNA results
Eric,
You are correct that there should be two Carroll's with that sequence
for 12 markers at YSearch, but I believe there is an error in the
recording of the data (just one marker) at YSearch for one of them. I
know the FTDNA number for the ones from Sampson County, and I think I
sort of figured out the ID code for YSearch by trial and error. I
wrote privately to one person yesterday and suggested he check and see
if there was not an error.
Yes, I am in correspondence with the one from Sampson County who has
an ancestor with Royal as a given name. (Most with the Ryall and Ryal
spelling changed to Royal around 1800.) We have a study group of
folks trying hard to learn the secrets of the 10 CARROLL families who
were in the 1790 census. Wouldn't you think about 20 researchers could
learn SOMETHING about the background of these elusive folks? I think
Alexander must have fallen from the sky on April 7, 1783 - his wedding
day! We are making a little progress, but very little.
I believe the will of Thomas Ryall you mentioned with Carrolls as
witnesses is yet another clue that they all drifted together into NC
from Isle of Wight Co., VA. I think I had seen some mention of that
before, but had no thought at that time that it concerned my family.
I know there were Carrolls and Ryals with adjoining property around
1750 in a county in between those places. I think they were sapping
the virgin long leaf pine trees for turpentine, pine tar, and pitch.
As the trees in an area were dying after about 5 years, they sold it
to a farmer and bought more land. Alexander had too many land
transactions to just be farming the land.
I can think of a lot of theories, but proving them is the problem.
But that isn't Y-DNA... Sorry,
Lura
----- Original Message -----
From: "Eric Olson" <ericbear(a)pcweb.net>
To: <CARROLL-DNA-L(a)rootsweb.com>
Sent: Saturday, July 02, 2005 1:12 PM
Subject: Re: [CARROLL-DNA] Comparing Y-DNA results
Lura,
I repeated your search at YSearch and got the same results. I chose
the
sequence 13,24,14,11,11,15,12,12,13,13,13,29 because I see it repeated
twice
in the project, and found the 60 matches you did - and all the
different
surnames. The Carroll surname should have appeared twice but did not,
apparently because one of the testees has not submitted his lineage
and
chooses to remain private, and has not allowed his data to be entered
into
YSearch. Therefore he will not show up on a database search.
By the way, did you notice that the one Carroll who did match in the
search
not only had ancestors in Sampson Co, NC., but also has Royal as a
given
name in his lineage? Another spelling of your Ryal?
Eric Olson
Carroll-DNA list administrator
ericbear(a)pcweb.net
----- Original Message -----
From: "Lura" <luraj(a)triad.rr.com>
To: <CARROLL-DNA-L(a)rootsweb.com>
Sent: Friday, July 01, 2005 5:44 PM
Subject: [CARROLL-DNA] Comparing Y-DNA results
> I've spent the day trying to learn more about Y-DNA profiling and
> what
> can be learned from the results. I am still interested in trying to
> understand the CARROLL families of Sampson County, NC before 1800,
> but
> I also need the information for another surname project.
>
> As I was doing some searching on YSearch at
>
http://www.ysearch.org/
> this morning, I entered the ID number I had been given for one
> person
> with the CARROLL surname who has taken the 12 marker test. I
> searched
> for individuals who matched all 12 markers exactly and had 0 as the
> genetic distance allowed. I was surprised when 60 perfect matches
> came up. That means that using 12 markers as the only criteria,
> that
> individual could "prove" a very close relationship to those 60
> persons. The real shocker was that all 61 of those persons had
> different surnames!
>
> As I thought about that, I wondered how many might have been
> affected
> by
> 1. Illegitimacy
> 2. Adoption
> 3. Deliberate name change
>
> Those three just couldn't explain that many people. Then I thought
> something else. In the 1600's each settler was given 50 acres of
> land
> as a "headright" for each person he brought to Virginia. Many
> families
> in the British Isles, especially in Catholic Ireland, wanted a
> better
> life for their many children than was available at home. (Remember
> those wives hadn't yet been granted the right to even "just say
> NO!")
> Some were glad to send their sons (and sometimes their daughters) as
> apprentices to work for wealthy land owners and learn a trade. Some
> of
> these children assumed the name of their master by legal adoption if
> a
> civil authority existed in the area, and some assumed the name by
> convenience. Many CARROLL's with lots of children lived in Catholic
> Ireland. It won't be too surprising if other surnames match.
>
> However, more importantly, it seems to me that this search shows the
> necessity of using more than 12 markers for comparison. I believe
> to
> establish any absolute "proof" of close kinship will take the 37
> marker test.
>
> Did I do this search correctly? Have others searched using an ID
> with
> only 12 markers and found a lot of matches?
>
> When I searched in the same manner using the ID # for another
> Carroll
> using the 12 markers and 0 genetic distance, I got 17 matches. None
> of
> these perfect matches had the CARROLL surname.
>
> With another ID # there were 6 perfect matches using the 12 makers
> and
> 0 genetic distance. Again, none of these had the Carroll surname.
> However, when I used 25 or 37 markers for this individual, there
> were
> no perfect matches.
>
> I hope we can soon find lots of Carrolls to send a DNA sample for
> all
> 37 markers, because I believe we will need a large data base before
> many matches can be made. I also hope that not many will jump to
> the
> wrong conclusions before there are more profiles with which to
> compare.
>
> Still learning,
> Lura
>
>
>
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>
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