Bruce E.,
You, Bruce E. Carpenter wrote, "I thought the Rehoboth/Providence problem
was a 24/25 match."
I, John R. Carpenter wrote ...
"If two people match 25 markers to 25 markers with the same surname the 90%
possibility of a common ancestor is a bit over 250 years or 10 generations
using 25 years as a generation. While it is possible, as John Chandler
mentioned, for them to be first cousins, the probability of them being
related within 50 years or 2 generations is less than 60%. (using FTDNATip
Report)"
Four paragraphs down I clearly state that the Providence & Rehoboth groups
match 24/25 and explain where they don't match in the DYS markers.
"The difference (mutation) between the Rehoboth and the Providence branch of
the Carpenter families who most likely came over from England in the 1630s
plus or minus a few years - <GRIN> for Gene - is a single marker called DYS
464d, which is 16 for the Providence branch (Group 2 on the Carpenter
Cousins Y-DNA web page) and 17 for the Rehoboth branch (Group 3). In
comparing the 25 markers for each group the match is 24/25. The genetic
distance is 1. "1" is very close in the genetic sense. These DYS 25 markers
change 1 mutation about an average every 500 years. Research is being
conducted on some that appear to mutate faster. The time calculations of
mutations are highly dependent on both the mutation rate and model assumed."
Please remember that there are a few slightly different models and mutation
schedules of calculating how people are related using Y-DNA. I got my data
from the FTDNATiP calculator. Let me restate, "The time calculations of
mutations are highly dependent on both the mutation rate and model assumed."
Bruce E. Carpenter wrote, "I admire what everyone has done on the DNA
project and please continue. However, please beware of unclear writing. Your
DNA page needs an editor."
Why, Thank you. Just to let you know that the ISOGG - International Society
of Genetic Genealogists - did a peer review of our Carpenter Cousins Y-DNA
Project web page and gave it very high marks. They stated that the
explanations and writing were very clear. We continue to make changes here
and there to continue to be one of the best Y-DNA web pages out in cyber
space.
John F. Chanlder has been complemented as providing a "carefully worded
analysis" and has had major input on several DNA web sites. He is well
regarding by many in his field of education and his contrbution to DNA
research and analysis. He has taught me and others about Y-DNA for which we
are very grateful.
Recently John F. Chandler received a Certificate of Appreciation that read
in part ... "This Certificate recognizes your effort and commitment to
better understand the Carpenter Family Ancestry through Genealogy and Y-DNA
Research. In addition you are to be commended regarding your effort to teach
& help others understand & apply DNA in the Carpenter Family."
Bruce, I would like to encourage you to submit your Y-DNA to the Carpenter
Cousins Y-DNA Project. Y-DNA from your line would help us understand the
Carpenter Family more clearly.
Please join our Carpenter Cousins Y-DNA Project at:
http://www.familytreedna.com/surname_join.asp?code=S82066
Regards,
John R. Carpenter
La Mesa, CA
----- Original Message -----
From: <bcarpenter72(a)alumni.wesleyan.edu>
To: <CARPENTER-L(a)rootsweb.com>
Sent: Saturday, October 29, 2005 11:42 PM
Subject: 25 markers
"If two people match 25 markers to 25 markers with the same
surname the
90%
possibility of a common ancestor is a bit over 250 years or 10 generations
using 25 years as a generation. While it is possible, as John Chandler
mentioned, for them to be first cousins, the probability of them being
related within 50 years or 2 generations is less than 60%. (using FTDNATip
Report)"
I thought the Rehoboth/Providence problem was a 24/25 match. My
understanding of the matter was that if there is a 24 of 25 marker match,
there is a 50% probability that
the most recent common ancestor is 17 generations or LESS. This I thought
to mean that from about the year 1500 until the present a
Rehoboth/Providence common ancestor is 50% possible.
I admire what everyone has done on the DNA project and please continue.
However, please beware of unclear writing. Your DNA page needs an editor.
BC
Nara, Japan
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