Here, listers, is a copy of a message I have just sent to Jim (James of the
Matlock branch) and Tom (Tom Carding, whose son Michael was the so helpful
local schoolmaster at the 1998 Gathering).
Dear Jim and Tom -
You have identical results for all 25 markers! Fancy that! (I continue to
be amazed at the apparent reliability of the testing process, and even more
at the reliability of the passage of the Y-chromosome unchanged from
generation to generation.)
This identity seems to imply that the Carding family of Cheshire/Nottingham
are members of the Matlock/Derbyshire Carden/Cardin branch.
This is because it is now known that there is a 50% chance that Jim and Tom's
common ancestor lived 7 or less generations ago. In Jim's case this would (I
think) be John Cardin born 1721. If the story that Tom is descended from a
Tipperary Carden is true, then I think his common ancestor with Jim would
have to be at least a dozen generations ago (I don't have the information
here in Spain, but I guess that the original Tipperary Carden, the patriarch
born about 1630, would be about 10 generations prior to Tom). So the
Tipperary story is still possible, but is now considerably less likely.
Tom, how are you and your family getting on with trying to trace Carding
ancestors of Mary de Warren's husband? Have you heard anything from Jim or
Marrion/Michael?
Some more 25-marker results are expected soon, but meanwhile your joint
result appears to define a more complete "Cheshire Haplotype." It will be
interesting to see how closely the others (particularly the Americans) match
your result. If exactly, we are looking at much more recent common ancestors
than we previously supposed.
I must now renew my efforts to get a Tipperary Carden to submit a sample for
25-marker testing, in order to establish the patriarch's numbers. (My own
DNA would be useless, as we have now proved a "non-paternal event" in my
ancestry, in about 1700).
What do you think? I'd love to have your comments.
Arthur